Investor discussion: AI forecasts
Summary notes from an investor expert discussion with Josh Rosenberg the CEO of the Forecasting Research Institute on AI forecasts.
A key challenge for investors on AI governance is the incredibly varied forecasts on AI capabilities and impacts. This may be one reason why many investors are struggling to consider the more uncertain and disruptive risks from AI, and why stewardship teams are instead focusing on how it impacts existing sustainability topics. To help address this we held a discussion with Josh Rosenberg from the Forecasting Research Institute on their research analysing AI predictions from 250+ subject matter experts and highly accurate forecasters. Three points stood out:
- Heads of labs expect the greatest and fastest impacts, next are experts and superforecasters, and lagging are the expectations of the public.
- The average expert probability of AI being equivalent to a technology of the century (e.g. electricity) is 60%, and 30% for being a technology of the millennium (e.g. agriculture).
- Predictions on workforce impact diverge sharply between economists, AI experts, and the public.